Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     48.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  39.1  33.4  29.8  20.3  20.8  20.8  20.8 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  20.0  26.0  34.0  24.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -40.0 -22.0  -4.0 -94.0 -62.0 -62.0 -62.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  39.0  39.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        2.9%        1.9%