Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50     48.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  34.4  28.5  24.5  17.8  19.7  19.7  19.7  U  U  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  18.0  24.0  30.0  22.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 139.3 139.3 139.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -20.0 -28.0 -69.0 -57.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  40.0  38.0  35.0  34.0  31.0  31.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0 -11.0  -7.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        5.8%        4.5%