Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182020 200914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00     49.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  28.6  24.0  20.0  23.7  23.9  23.9  23.9  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  30.0  31.0  26.0  23.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0 -20.0 -81.0 -78.0 -21.0  28.0  28.0  28.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  37.0  33.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0 -13.0  -9.0  -4.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0  F  F VF  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.4%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%        7.0%        7.9%