Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     79.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.6  12.2  15.7  14.4  13.1  16.9  25.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  45.0  65.0  88.0  29.0  28.0  31.0  29.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  37.0  33.0  27.0   6.0  81.0  16.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        5.8%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       43.7%       30.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       23.1%       16.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       23.1%       14.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       23.1%       12.1%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       55.0%       35.0%
 55kt / 36h       10.8%       33.8%       22.3%
 55kt / 48h       29.7%       40.2%       35.0%
 70kt / 48h       20.5%       35.6%       28.0%
 65kt / 72h       33.8%       47.7%       40.7%