Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     80.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  14.2  15.3  18.1  11.8  18.5  15.1  28.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  66.0  81.0  40.0  27.0  34.0  36.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  42.0  44.0  19.0  47.0  46.0  20.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   3.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       27.4%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%       11.2%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       11.2%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       11.2%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       38.1%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.9%       17.8%       11.9%
 55kt / 48h       22.8%       27.7%       25.2%
 70kt / 48h       12.5%       19.7%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       31.0%       33.5%       32.3%