Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200912 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60     81.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  15.9  20.4  17.5  15.3  21.9  23.3  27.5  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  84.0  45.0  33.0  31.0  46.0  38.0  30.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  56.0  22.0  20.0  49.0   0.0  52.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  65.0  62.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0   3.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.7%       21.4%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.8%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        7.8%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.8%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.2%       30.3%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       11.8%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%       18.5%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.6%       12.0%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h       24.8%       22.2%       23.5%