Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50     81.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  18.5  17.5  13.6  20.4  16.0  28.9  21.6  F  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  56.0  37.0  34.0  35.0  57.0  37.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  21.0  18.0  37.0  20.0  28.0  26.0  49.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  61.0  67.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        6.9%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       16.8%       41.5%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h        9.6%       23.0%       16.3%
 35kt / 24h        6.3%       23.0%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       23.0%       12.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       48.8%       32.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.5%       27.5%       18.5%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%       31.7%       27.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.5%       24.1%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       22.5%       30.3%       26.4%