Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00     82.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.5  15.4  14.7  19.3  23.6  25.1  28.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  35.0  33.0  32.0  61.0  44.0  29.0  38.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  18.0  40.0  55.0   0.0  22.0  22.0  63.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   3.0  -3.0   1.0  12.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        4.1%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.6%       29.0%       19.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%       14.0%       10.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       14.0%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       14.0%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       33.9%       23.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.4%       14.2%       10.8%
 55kt / 48h       19.3%       20.6%       20.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.4%       13.7%       12.1%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       19.8%       19.1%