Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     83.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  14.7  12.8  16.2  14.3  27.8  20.5  32.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  32.0  30.0  39.0  57.0  32.0  33.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  51.0  61.0  40.0  32.0  36.0  51.0  37.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  66.0  62.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  13.0   9.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        4.7%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       30.1%       20.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%       16.5%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       16.5%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       16.5%        9.4%
 45kt / 36h       15.0%       34.2%       24.6%
 55kt / 36h        9.1%       14.1%       11.6%
 55kt / 48h       16.5%       18.4%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%        9.8%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h       13.8%       14.1%       14.0%