Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     84.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  13.3  19.7  23.5  24.6  26.3  29.6  34.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  34.0  58.0  62.0  30.0  31.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  48.0  29.0  13.0  32.0  43.0  60.0  34.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  64.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   2.0  -7.0   3.0   4.0  12.0  16.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%       11.5%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       42.4%       31.8%
 30kt / 24h       15.4%       28.5%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       28.5%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       28.5%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       18.8%       39.8%       29.3%
 55kt / 36h       11.3%       18.7%       15.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       18.4%       15.9%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%       10.4%        7.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        8.6%        6.2%