Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70     85.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  21.1  23.5  18.7  30.1  28.2  38.1  40.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  60.0  63.0  43.0  29.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  96.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  27.0   4.0  18.0  29.0  55.0  50.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  64.0  67.0  63.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -3.0   0.0  12.0   6.0  14.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.1%        6.7%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       28.6%       21.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       17.6%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.9%       17.6%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       17.6%       10.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       17.9%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%        6.0%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        9.2%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%