Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     85.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  21.8  18.7  22.6  29.6  29.1  36.4  44.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  63.0  52.0  36.0  29.0  28.0   5.0   5.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0   8.0  23.0  29.0  42.0  66.0  46.0  83.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -2.0   1.0   5.0  10.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        3.2%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       17.1%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        9.1%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        9.1%        6.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        9.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%        8.6%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        2.3%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        6.2%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%