Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     86.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  17.4  21.9  28.8  26.9  36.4  37.8  52.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  52.0  40.0  34.0  31.0  14.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  98.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  31.0  44.0  19.0  53.0  59.0  94.0  82.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  67.0  63.0  68.0  69.0  74.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   6.0  11.0   7.0  21.0  18.0  11.0  N  N  N  U  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        5.3%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       23.3%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.9%       12.3%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       12.3%        7.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       11.7%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       14.7%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        4.7%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        8.0%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%