Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20     87.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.5  24.8  28.4  27.4  30.8  37.0  46.8  50.5  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  53.0  37.0  31.0  31.0  23.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  43.0  25.0  51.0  72.0  59.0  88.0  31.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  62.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0  10.0   5.0  10.0  19.0  11.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%        8.9%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.5%       29.1%       22.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       17.1%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        8.2%       17.1%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       17.0%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       16.9%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%        5.6%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        7.4%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%