Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.70     87.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  30.6  31.1  29.4  39.1  35.1  49.1  50.5  N  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  38.0  29.0  29.0  40.0   5.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  70.7  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  26.0  41.0  58.0  54.0  64.0  78.0  43.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  72.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  14.0   7.0   7.0  15.0  18.0  10.0  -3.0  U  U  N  N  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.8%       39.7%       56.3%
 25kt / 24h       70.8%       61.0%       65.9%
 30kt / 24h       70.8%       61.0%       65.9%
 35kt / 24h       70.8%       61.0%       65.9%
 40kt / 24h       32.3%       57.4%       44.8%
 45kt / 36h       34.7%       29.0%       31.8%
 55kt / 36h       12.1%       14.0%       13.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.2%        8.7%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%