Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.8  31.0  27.0  30.5  33.0  40.9  41.3  55.9  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  33.0  28.0  29.0  34.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  77.0  65.7  61.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  41.0  50.0  77.0  59.0  85.0  70.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  75.0  70.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   4.0   7.0  12.0  14.0  11.0   9.0  -5.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.0%       17.7%       36.9%
 25kt / 24h       45.6%       34.8%       40.2%
 30kt / 24h       45.6%       28.3%       37.0%
 35kt / 24h       45.6%       28.3%       37.0%
 40kt / 24h       17.4%       28.3%       22.8%
 45kt / 36h       29.9%       13.8%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.9%        5.2%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        3.4%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%