Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80     88.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  25.0  31.4  35.9  30.9  43.1  42.4  58.6  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  35.0  29.0  29.0  35.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  72.9  68.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  61.0  59.0  34.0  59.0  84.0  80.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   9.0  17.0  15.0  14.0   6.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        3.9%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       10.2%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.4%        5.8%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        5.8%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        5.7%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%        2.5%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        0.5%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%