Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.10     88.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  31.7  37.1  37.1  39.7  44.1  63.9  61.8  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  27.0  28.0  33.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  80.1  71.5  71.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  78.0  52.0  50.0  64.0  72.0  65.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  62.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  61.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  14.0   3.0 -14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        3.0%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%        9.6%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        5.7%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        5.7%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%        5.0%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        1.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%