Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30     88.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.9  36.5  37.4  31.8  44.8  48.2  61.2  70.3  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  27.0  29.0  33.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  80.7  78.6  82.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  59.0  50.0  55.0  77.0  64.0  59.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  66.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  56.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  13.0  12.0  20.0  20.0  10.0  -2.0   9.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.5%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%        7.5%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.2%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.2%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%