Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60     88.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.8  37.3  31.2  36.8  39.6  55.5  60.7  74.9  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  32.0  17.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  94.3  82.9  78.6  87.3  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  51.0  66.0  93.0  59.0  64.0  63.0  23.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  63.0  67.0  69.0  65.0  59.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  12.0  16.0  17.0  11.0   5.0   4.0  -6.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.9%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%        9.4%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        5.4%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        5.4%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.3%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%