Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.90     87.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  32.0  35.6  42.5  43.6  53.7  62.4  69.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  30.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  74.3  72.0  60.7  60.7  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  68.0  84.0  77.0  65.0  85.0  29.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  16.0  15.0  18.0   8.0  -5.0 -10.0 -25.0  U  U  U VU  U  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.7%        9.1%       25.4%
 25kt / 24h       17.2%       14.0%       15.6%
 30kt / 24h       15.1%        8.4%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h       15.1%        8.4%       11.7%
 40kt / 24h       13.5%        7.7%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%        3.5%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%