Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40     87.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  36.9  42.8  41.4  50.8  55.7  62.5  62.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  79.3  77.0  70.1  61.5  74.6  80.0  80.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  82.0  66.0  64.0  57.0  27.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  63.0  56.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  16.0  14.0  10.0   1.0 -23.0 -37.0 -37.0 VU  U  U  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%        4.1%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%        7.0%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        3.7%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%        3.7%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%        3.1%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%