Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90     87.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  41.9  42.7  42.9  48.8  65.5  65.5  65.5  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.0  97.3  88.6  86.5  90.7  95.1  95.1  95.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  62.0  54.0  50.0  69.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  13.0   9.0   6.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 VU  U  U  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%