Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.3  42.6  44.9  53.1  64.5  64.5  64.5  64.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 113.6 109.4 109.4 122.3 122.3 122.3 122.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  43.0  47.0  70.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   5.0   2.0  -9.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0  U  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%