Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.60     86.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.1  45.6  53.7  56.3  71.5  71.5  71.5  71.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 116.5 118.6 125.1 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  59.0  67.0  52.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   3.0   1.0  11.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%