Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192020 200917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     85.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.2  51.7  60.2  71.6  85.9  85.9  85.9  85.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 125.7 134.6 139.3 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.5  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  61.0  91.0  80.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0  N  N  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0  27.0  15.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N VU  U  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%