Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     33.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  18.7  21.7  21.6  19.5  13.7  16.8  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  12.0  13.0  12.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 134.3 135.0 134.3 127.3 122.9 118.6 114.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  59.0  81.0 103.0 107.0 107.0  73.0 126.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0 -16.0 -18.0 -13.0  -7.0  -4.0   0.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       14.0%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.3%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.3%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.3%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%       20.5%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%        6.7%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%        4.8%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%       11.1%        7.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%       20.2%       16.8%