Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     34.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  21.9  23.5  24.1  14.6  14.2  16.0  21.1  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  13.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 129.6 125.1 118.6 120.7 122.9 122.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0 116.0 135.0 100.0  84.0  93.0  80.0  95.0  F  F VF  F  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -14.0 -23.0 -25.0  -5.0 -10.0   0.0   1.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       14.3%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        5.1%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       21.2%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        6.7%        4.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.7%        8.5%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%       12.8%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h       19.6%       23.6%       21.6%