Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200913 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00     35.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  22.6  20.7  17.0  10.1  16.0  23.8  27.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  23.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 127.3 125.1 120.7 118.6 122.9 125.1 122.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 113.0 120.0 102.0  71.0  80.0  90.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -22.0 -23.0 -18.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0   2.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        9.4%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       15.8%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        4.6%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.5%        8.2%        9.3%
 70kt / 48h        8.2%        9.0%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h       18.0%       15.0%       16.5%