Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     35.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  22.9  16.8  13.9  15.1  19.0  22.6  23.4  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  22.0  40.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 125.1 122.9 118.6 122.9 125.1 125.1 125.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 121.0 106.0  79.0  90.0  74.0  85.0  50.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -29.0 -14.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   1.0   2.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       11.9%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.7%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       20.7%       12.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        6.8%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.9%        7.5%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%       11.4%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       22.6%       20.6%       21.6%