Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200913 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     37.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  18.3  13.8  10.8  14.3  19.5  22.8  20.6  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  11.0  11.0  10.0  19.0  38.0  45.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 120.7 120.7 122.9 127.3 127.3 127.3 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 112.0  75.0  76.0  91.0  81.0  59.0  31.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -16.0  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0 VF VF  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       12.5%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       24.2%       14.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        8.8%        5.5%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       10.2%       11.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%       13.6%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h       25.6%       23.7%       24.7%