Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     38.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  13.3  10.9  10.0  16.5  21.9  24.4  18.9  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  11.0  14.0  28.0  44.0  36.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 122.9 127.3 127.3 129.6 129.6 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0  87.0  64.0  89.0  81.0  89.0  30.0  64.0  F  F  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0  -6.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   4.0 VF  F  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       16.2%       10.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        5.7%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.7%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        5.7%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       28.7%       17.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%       11.8%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.7%       11.8%       14.7%
 70kt / 48h       11.8%       16.0%       13.9%
 65kt / 72h       29.1%       25.9%       27.5%