Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200914 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     39.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  10.7  11.3  12.3  20.6  22.2  24.8  25.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  14.0  22.0  41.0  44.0  25.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 117.9 120.1 122.3 124.6 124.6 124.6 124.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  73.0  89.0 106.0 106.0  77.0  45.0  44.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0 -11.0 -13.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   7.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.7%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.9%       23.4%       15.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%       10.8%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       10.8%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       10.8%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.4%       35.1%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       15.5%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       20.3%       16.6%       18.4%
 70kt / 48h       16.6%       17.6%       17.1%
 65kt / 72h       26.4%       22.2%       24.3%