Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     41.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  10.6   9.9  15.4  19.8  22.1  21.5  22.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  12.0  16.0  26.0  27.0  25.0  25.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 124.6 124.6 127.0 127.0 127.0 129.3 129.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  86.0 121.0 106.0 110.0  35.0  40.0  49.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0  -7.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  11.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.5%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       35.8%       24.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       21.3%       14.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       21.3%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       21.3%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.3%       44.6%       30.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.3%       22.9%       15.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.6%       24.4%       23.0%
 70kt / 48h       13.5%       21.5%       17.5%
 65kt / 72h       27.1%       25.8%       26.5%