Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200914 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  13.9  16.6  19.3  19.0  21.7  27.8  25.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  25.0  28.0  26.0  25.0  24.0  31.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0 118.0 114.0 131.0  65.0  -3.0  19.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -9.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   7.0   8.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.5%       10.7%       10.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.7%       47.5%       38.1%
 30kt / 24h       19.1%       38.1%       28.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.7%       38.1%       28.4%
 40kt / 24h       18.7%       38.1%       28.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.3%       46.6%       37.5%
 55kt / 36h       15.6%       25.1%       20.3%
 55kt / 48h       20.9%       26.1%       23.5%
 70kt / 48h       12.9%       19.3%       16.1%
 65kt / 72h       19.8%       18.8%       19.3%