Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     44.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.5  16.7  16.1  23.9  20.6  23.9  20.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  28.0  27.0  26.0  24.0  29.0  48.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 119.3 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 154.0 153.0 100.0  29.0  45.0  66.0  45.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  10.0   9.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%       13.8%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       43.2%       60.6%       51.9%
 30kt / 24h       26.5%       51.9%       39.2%
 35kt / 24h       21.8%       51.9%       36.8%
 40kt / 24h       21.8%       51.9%       36.8%
 45kt / 36h       30.6%       56.1%       43.4%
 55kt / 36h       16.6%       35.1%       25.9%
 55kt / 48h       24.7%       34.1%       29.4%
 70kt / 48h       15.5%       26.5%       21.0%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       30.1%       32.6%