Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     45.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  19.6  18.8  20.9  24.3  26.4  19.0  21.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  27.0  27.0  26.0  25.0  37.0  48.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        112.0 112.0 112.0 112.0 114.3 114.3 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   156.0 128.0  91.0  56.0  30.0  22.0  38.0  36.0 VF  F  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%       11.5%       12.5%
 25kt / 24h       33.1%       47.9%       40.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.8%       38.8%       30.3%
 35kt / 24h       15.9%       38.8%       27.3%
 40kt / 24h       15.9%       38.8%       27.3%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       36.9%       29.9%
 55kt / 36h       11.1%       18.0%       14.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%       20.2%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       11.5%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h       24.1%       15.8%       19.9%