Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     46.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  21.5  22.7  22.2  22.4  27.5  21.3  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  30.0  27.0  21.0  19.0  25.0  40.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0  84.0  52.0  20.0  16.0  19.0  37.0  11.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  49.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  19.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.3%       13.2%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       33.9%       46.8%       40.4%
 30kt / 24h       22.2%       36.8%       29.5%
 35kt / 24h       16.7%       36.8%       26.7%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       36.8%       24.7%
 45kt / 36h       18.0%       33.8%       25.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.1%       16.5%       12.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%       16.7%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        7.5%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%        9.2%       10.3%