Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     47.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.0  21.3  22.1  24.9  19.5  22.8  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  25.0  21.0  20.0  21.0  32.0  41.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 109.3 110.0 109.3 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0  88.0  66.0  54.0  16.0  22.0  14.0  51.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  46.0  42.0  42.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   9.0  15.0  10.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        7.6%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       22.2%       36.1%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.7%       25.2%       19.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       25.2%       16.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.5%       25.0%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.1%       22.5%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%        9.0%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%       14.6%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        5.0%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%        8.1%       10.7%