Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     48.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  20.3  20.6  21.1  25.0  19.5  23.3  21.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  23.0  20.0  19.0  21.0  36.0  39.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 104.3 105.0 104.3 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  68.0  56.0  61.0  18.0  26.0  45.0  32.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  45.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  14.0  12.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%       11.3%       11.8%
 25kt / 24h       29.5%       43.6%       36.5%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       35.3%       27.1%
 35kt / 24h       13.6%       35.3%       24.4%
 40kt / 24h       11.7%       35.0%       23.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       24.0%       19.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%       10.0%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%       17.8%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        5.4%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.3%        7.0%        9.7%