Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     48.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.5  22.5  26.9  24.4  27.5  22.1  24.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  20.0  19.0  17.0  26.0  42.0  37.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  85.0  84.3  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  76.0  77.0  64.0  14.0  39.0  58.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  50.0  48.0  46.0  46.0  41.0  42.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   4.0   7.0  11.0  10.0  13.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.8%       44.5%       58.2%
 25kt / 24h       64.3%       70.9%       67.6%
 30kt / 24h       61.3%       70.9%       66.1%
 35kt / 24h       61.3%       70.9%       66.1%
 40kt / 24h       59.3%       70.3%       64.8%
 45kt / 36h       40.9%       42.1%       41.5%
 55kt / 36h       17.7%       25.5%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       19.1%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        7.6%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        5.2%        5.0%