Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10     49.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  20.2  27.0  26.5  20.8  23.4  20.0  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0  11.0  20.0  42.0  39.0  29.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.0  82.0  84.3  84.3  84.3  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  67.0  71.0  54.0  57.0  40.0  38.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  49.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  42.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0  11.0  13.0  11.0  11.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.2%       24.2%       40.2%
 25kt / 24h       45.5%       44.7%       45.1%
 30kt / 24h       45.5%       44.7%       45.1%
 35kt / 24h       45.5%       44.7%       45.1%
 40kt / 24h       45.5%       44.7%       45.1%
 45kt / 36h       36.6%       24.8%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h       14.2%       11.2%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%       12.2%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        3.5%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%        3.2%        4.3%