Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     50.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  26.7  27.7  20.6  24.2  24.0  20.5  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  14.0  26.0  39.0  39.0  32.0  27.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.0  79.3  80.0  80.0  79.3  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  77.0  76.0  30.0  35.0  55.0 -19.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  44.0  43.0  42.0  41.0  42.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  12.0  16.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  14.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%        9.9%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       23.6%       28.9%       26.2%
 30kt / 24h       17.3%       25.2%       21.3%
 35kt / 24h       14.5%       25.2%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h       13.8%       22.9%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%       12.7%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        4.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        7.1%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        2.1%        3.6%