Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60     51.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  27.6  22.3  23.2  22.3  21.1  14.9  14.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  23.0  34.0  42.0  39.0  29.0  31.0  42.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         84.3  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  76.0  59.0  49.0  51.0  31.0  -6.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  12.0  13.0  10.0  12.0   9.0  16.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.3%        4.1%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       20.1%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       15.9%       12.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%       15.9%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       14.0%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h       13.4%        6.1%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        1.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        6.9%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%        2.0%        5.6%