Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     52.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  21.8  21.8  25.1  21.4  16.1  11.2  15.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  35.0  42.0  41.0  34.0  26.0  37.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  79.0  53.0  34.0  69.0  -5.0  19.0  21.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  46.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   9.0   9.0  12.0   9.0  13.0   6.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%        7.8%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       23.3%       29.5%       26.4%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%       26.5%       20.6%
 35kt / 24h       11.5%       26.5%       19.0%
 40kt / 24h       11.1%       20.4%       15.7%
 45kt / 36h       27.2%       12.4%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%        4.4%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.8%        8.9%        8.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        8.7%        3.4%        6.1%