Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     52.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.5  24.6  23.6  19.8  15.8  14.8  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  42.0  40.0  38.0  28.0  33.0  41.0  21.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  69.3  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  55.0  56.0  78.0  38.0 -16.0  28.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  11.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  14.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.5%       16.6%       27.1%
 25kt / 24h       36.9%       36.6%       36.7%
 30kt / 24h       26.3%       33.6%       30.0%
 35kt / 24h       24.8%       33.6%       29.2%
 40kt / 24h       20.0%       26.4%       23.2%
 45kt / 36h       48.1%       20.8%       34.5%
 55kt / 36h        8.8%       10.0%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%        7.3%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%