Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200917 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70     53.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  25.3  26.1  24.9  17.4  14.2  16.2   7.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  41.0  36.0  30.0  31.0  38.0  24.0  21.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  44.0  64.0  82.0   0.0  13.0  33.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  49.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  12.0  15.0  10.0  17.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.7%       18.7%       37.2%
 25kt / 24h       32.8%       26.5%       29.6%
 30kt / 24h       26.5%       21.4%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h       26.5%       21.4%       23.9%
 40kt / 24h       17.4%       15.6%       16.5%
 45kt / 36h       72.5%       19.7%       46.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%