Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70     55.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  21.5  21.3  17.3  19.1  12.6  18.6  39.9  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  29.0  48.0  35.0  17.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  63.0  17.0  -7.0   9.0  40.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  45.0  44.0  46.0  45.0  52.0  57.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  16.0  19.0  18.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0 -14.0  U  U VU VU  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.0%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%