Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  21.9  18.2  16.3  22.0  10.5  26.0  58.9  N  N  F  F  N  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  28.0  48.0  39.0  26.0  12.0  10.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  45.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  10.0 -15.0   7.0  28.0  54.0  42.0  74.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  46.0  56.0  60.0  60.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  19.0  22.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0  12.0  19.0  U VU VU  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.8%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        5.7%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h       23.9%        2.5%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%