Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202020 200919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  16.6  17.1  20.9  17.0  14.8  37.2  75.6  N  F  F  N  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  37.0  34.0  32.0  12.0   4.0  14.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  54.3  36.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0 -16.0  -6.0   3.0  28.0  72.0  83.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  44.0  45.0  44.0  51.0  62.0  63.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  14.0   5.0  -4.0   5.0   5.0   6.0  70.0  U  U  N  F  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        2.1%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        4.8%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        3.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        3.0%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       25.3%        2.1%       13.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%